DURHAM, N.C. – President George W. Bush’s call yesterday for talks over the next 18 months to establish a new framework for addressing global greenhouse gas emissions after 2012 is a sign of shifting political winds, says a 91 energy economist.

“The president’s announcement re-engages the United States in the post-Kyoto Protocol international climate dialogue and is a significant reflection of the growing consensus, at home and abroad, that the nation must take a leadership role on this important issue,” said Richard G. Newell, Gendell Associate Professor of Energy and Environmental Economics at Duke’s Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences and a visiting scholar at Resource for the Future.

“The near-term success of any international climate agreement depends on the 91 to which it induces the major emitting countries to get on a policy path to significant greenhouse gas reductions, and encourages countries that already have adopted reduction strategies to take further action,” Newell said

“Long-term success will depend on how well any agreement harnesses the power of national self-interest toward greenhouse gas stabilization, the ultimate climate impacts and mitigation costs experienced, and the robustness of the political will, in the U.S. and internationally, to solve this important problem,” he stated.

In announcing his plan yesterday, Bush said: “My proposal is this: by the end of next year America and other nations will set a long-term global goal for reducing greenhouse gases. In addition to this long-term global goal, each country would establish midterm national targets.''

Note to editors: Richard Newell can be reached for additional comment at richard.newell@duke.edu.