DURHAM, N.C. – A capacity crowd of more than 400 people turned out Tuesday night, Jan. 8, for “Will the Water Run Out?” a public town hall meeting on water conservation and the drought hosted by the Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences at 91.

The meeting focused on current and future water concerns facing the Duke and Durham communities as a result of persistent drought conditions that began last summer.  Numerous local leaders, including Durham Mayor Bill Bell and Durham County Commission Chair Ellen Reckhow, were among the crowd that packed into the Duke Gardens Visitors Center. Taking advantage of an uncharacteristically balmy January night, many in the crowd overflowed onto the patio and lawn behind the center and watched the meeting on large-screen monitors.

Nicholas School Dean William L. Chameides moderated the meeting. He noted that although Durham has weathered worse droughts in the past, including those in the 1920s and the historic 1932-34 Dust Bowl, there is a key difference today. 

“The Triangle is now home to millions, not thousands,” Chameides said. “The demand for water has grown along with our population.”

A panel of local experts from Duke, the City of Durham and government agencies joined Chameides at the meeting. They made brief presentations and then fielded nearly an hour and a half of questions from the crowd.

Jerad Bales of the U.S. Geological Survey Water Science Center in Raleigh, explained that although current rainfall deficits are much less than they were in some past droughts, the Flat River, which feeds into Durham’s main water supply, experienced its lowest recorded flows ever in 2007. He said the drought’s sudden onset last fall makes it especially problematic, because a water deficit is easier for cities to deal with if it accrues slowly over a long period of time.

Robert Jackson, Nicholas Professor of Global Environmental Change and professor of biology at Duke, said the rapid onset was exacerbated by much higher than normal temperatures during August, September and October, which were some of the hottest months on record at Raleigh-Durham International Airport.
Jackson said that although scientists can’t predict with 100 percent certainty that the hot, dry trend will continue, it is consistent with what global warming models have been showing for the last 10 to 20 years.  “Climate change is relevant. It’s coming and perhaps it is already here,” he said.

Kemel Dawkins, vice president for campus services at Duke, reviewed the university’s initiatives to conserve water and stressed its commitment to using water resources wisely. Many of the initiatives are detailed online at .

Bill Holman, senior visiting fellow at Duke’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, presented an overview of policy options for managing water resources and encouraging greater conservation. A policy brief written by Holman was distributed at the meeting. It urged the city to adopt year-round conservation and efficiency programs and impose reasonable increases in water pricing.

Sydney Miller of the Triangle J Council of Governments, and Ted Voorhees, Durham deputy manager, also made presentations.

Miller emphasized that easing off on conservation measures would be a mistake, even if rainfall amounts increase in coming months, because it is likely that area reservoirs will drop rapidly again next summer. He praised the city for its attempts to secure extra water from the City of Cary’s supply in Jordan Lake and said such cooperation between the Triangle’s water systems will be critical to meet future demand and manage limited water resources.

Voorhees said recent rainfalls and the addition of the Teer Quarry reservoir to the city’s water supply has allowed Durham to delay imposing Stage V water restrictions, which could have serious economic impacts on businesses, but he said city officials are closely monitoring conditions and will call for more stringent conservation if needed. Increased voluntary conservation could help the city postpone making that call, he said.

Avner Vengosh, associate professor of earth and ocean science at the Nicholas School, helped organize the town hall meeting and was one of three hydrologists on hand to assist panelists in answering questions from the audience.

Joining him as experts-on-call were Melinda Chapman of the U.S. Geological Survey Water Sciences Center, and Rick Bolich of the North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources.

Many in the crowd voiced their concern that voluntary conservation is not enough, and that more needs to be done to prevent the water supplies from running out. Numerous questions focused on the possibility of imposing tiered water rates to penalize heavy water users, or on the impact more than a decade of steady development in the Triangle was having on water quality and availability.

Duke and Durham officials promised to continue working together to find solutions and keep the public informed.

We face some “great challenges” in both the short and long term, Chameides said. He pledged that the Nicholas School will continue to work with partners on and off campus to “find a sustainable path.”

for more information, contact dukenvironment@nicholas.duke.edu